Aluminum prices continue to fall, with secondary aluminum prices partially following the decline [Daily Review of ADC12 Prices]

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SMM reported on July 7:

On the futures market, today the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract 2511 opened at the highest price of 19,885 yuan/mt, reached the lowest price of 19,685 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,750 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt or 0.68% from last Friday, with a trading volume of 4,207 and an open interest of 8,448. Bulls reduced their positions mainly during the day.

In the spot market, SMM A00 aluminum prices fell 130 yuan/mt from last Friday to 20,640 yuan/mt, and SMM ADC12 prices dropped 100 yuan/mt to 20,000 yuan/mt. After July, factors such as the high-temperature off-season and high aluminum prices continued to impact downstream orders, with some downstream enterprises initiating production reduction modes. Although futures and spot traders were actively inquiring about prices and the trading volume of delivery brands increased somewhat, the end-use consumption market remained sluggish, constituting a key resistance to price increases. Facing the dual pressures of raw material supply deficits and weak market demand, some secondary aluminum manufacturers have temporarily halted their furnaces for maintenance or reduced their operating rates. Overall, without substantial improvement in demand, prices encounter resistance in rising, but the cost support logic remains, and it is expected that secondary aluminum alloy prices will maintain a narrow rangebound fluctuation in the short term.

In the import market, the CIF quotes for imported ADC12 remained at $2,450-2,480/mt, the imported spot price was around 19,200 yuan/mt, and the imported real-time loss was around 800 yuan/mt. The local tax-excluded quotes for ADC12 in Thailand were concentrated at 82-83 Thai baht/kg.

Note: Import profits refer to real-time profits.

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